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The US geoeconomic strategy in the Trump 2.0 era

The US geoeconomic strategy in the Trump 2.0 era

In a world undergoing rapid and profound geopolitical changes, Donald J. Trump confirms himself as one of the most disruptive players on the global scene. With a strategy that combines economic protectionism, bilateral diplomacy and power projections, Trump redefines the boundaries of American leadership according to a logic of immediate tactical advantage. From tariff wars to the new diplomacy in the Middle East, from legitimization of cryptocurrencies to America's ambitions on the Arctic, his approach is based on a transactional and pragmatic vision of power, in which peace, economics and technology become tools of a single, coherent narrative.

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Trump’s bets on tariffs

Trump’s bets on tariffs

Donald Trump's recent decision to introduce tariffs of varying amounts (from 10% to 50%) on products from 180 countries has generated strong turbulence in the financial markets and shakeups in the geopolitical balance. Many have called the US President's move madness, an illogical choice that among other things risks thwarting the goal that has conquered the sentiment of the majority of the electorate: to bring the United States back to a new "golden age", which, for the Americans, can be located in a not too distant past (specifically, the 90s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union but prior to the rise of the Chinese economy)…

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Australia’s mining sector and its strategic importance in the Pacific

Australia’s mining sector and its strategic importance in the Pacific

In the early 2000s, Australia had found in China, which was then at the beginning of an extraordinary growth path, a leading trading partner for the purchase of its mineral resources, an element at the center of Canberra's economy, so much so that it conditioned the country's currency fluctuations. This commercial bond, however, over the years is turning into a situation of dependence, which presents at least two problems: China is adopting a policy of greater self-sufficiency and, therefore, has reduced its imports of raw materials, as well as has started a more aggressive policy on a military level, both with regard to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific quadrant, becoming increasingly tense with the US-led bloc in the region. Australia, today, two months before the elections, is therefore in a very delicate position and will probably be forced to change its management policies of the extractive industry, moving towards nationalization measures. [...]

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Shaking things up: geopolitics and the euro credit risk measure

Shaking things up: geopolitics and the euro credit risk measure

Gravitational model offers novel way of assessing national and regional risks in new world order

Global political allegiances are forming and re-forming daily. It’s a geopolitical kaleidoscope, in which the implications for Europe – politically and economically – take a new shape with every turn. In the eurozone, with its annual public debt turnover of approximately €1 trillion ($1 trillion), these changes alternately strengthen or weaken the likelihood of its continuance – and that of its currency. As the balance of global power shifts, it seems fitting that we should start to measure that [...]

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Sanctions on Russia: a critical look

Sanctions on Russia: a critical look

January 2, 2025

Trump's victory, the crisis in Germany and France, the increase in instability in the Middle East

Pending Donald Trump's inauguration, scheduled for January 20, 2025, the European institutions will have to make a decision regarding the policy of economic sanctions against Russia, considering that the fourteenth package of sanctions will expire at the beginning of next year. It will be interesting to see how and to what extent the change of leadership in the United States – with Trump convinced that he will be able to promote at least a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, strengthened by an internal consensus that, in his second term, seems decidedly more determined to withdraw from a war that is too costly – will change the Eurozone's posture towards the Kremlin.

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The hidden dynamics behind China’s BoP ‘errors and omissions’

The hidden dynamics behind China’s BoP ‘errors and omissions’

Marcello Minenna highlights the possible implications an unaccounted-for £30bn has for the PBoC

Over the past 15 years, China’s balance of payments (BoP) has registered significant amounts in the ‘errors and omissions’ item (figure 1). Over the years, this data has provided much food for thought for the central bank, which is responsible for regulating capital movements and the level of official reserves...

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